Do Movies Have A Future?
Over the last few weeks, the world we live in has changed in monumental ways. And though COVID-19 will eventually pass, it is an open question whether some of its impacts might become permanent. With movie theaters universally shuttered in America, box office receipts are at an all-time low, causing many to wonder whether the entire movie industry might be on the precipice of a radical new path.
The first domino to fall was the postponing and cancellation of many of the year’s biggest cinematic events. SXSW was cancelled, Cannes Film Festival was delayed and the fall film festival circuit seems like it will be inevitably altered.
Many of the year’s most high profile releases have already been jettisoned to later dates as studios scramble to try to preserve their chances at making back the large budgets that make their tentpoles possible. The first major release to get a new date was No Time to Die, the latest James Bond vehicle. Since then, major studios have been shoving their slates aside. Disney, Sony, WarnerBros. and NBC Universal have all announced changes to their slates as movie theaters sit mostly dormant today.
The luckiest studios have online platforms where they can allow customers to stream their latest projects and grow their subscriber base. Disney’s recent launch of Disney+ was fortuitously timed as it allowed them to get more mileage out of Pixar’s latest, Onward, even after theaters shuttered. But with films like Mulan to be released in the future, it remains to be seen what Disney will do going forward. Its highest profile titles generally come from the Marvel Cinematic Universe and require hundreds of millions of dollars worth of receipts before they turn a profit. How many theaters will even survive once the economic impact of the pandemic is fully realized?
The studio that has fared best through all of this is, of course, Netflix. Their entire business model is built on people staying home, so now that most of the world’s population is doing just that, they stand to gain a lot of new eyeballs. They are, however, just as susceptible to the production shutdowns that have plagued the entire industry. Netflix’s future projects have been postponed indefinitely—just like the four Avatar sequels and The Matrix 4. These may proceed on a case-by-case basis throughout the course of 2020, but it will be a while before we get back to “normal,” and it’s anyone’s guess what our new normal might look like.
One person who has a guess at what the future might hold is longtime Hollywood executive, Jeffrey Katzenberg. His new startup, Quibi, which launches April 6, is built to be a mobile platform by design. It will feature short form content by splashy names like Chance the Rapper and Chrissy Teigen. It is anyone’s guess how successful it will be, but it already has a lot of high profile dollars behind it, so there is at least a chance it is the wave of the future. Along with the general push for content to be delivered straight into people’s homes, the push for more content on smaller and smaller screen might be just beginning.
But assuming feature length productions will grace our screens again, it interesting to imagine when and how. The idea that people will be gathering in large theaters with hundreds of other moviegoers any time in 2020 seems unlikely. Much like sporting events, theaters will have to get creative if they want people to feel safe enough to return to their venues. In the meantime, many small theaters may struggle to survive. If there is one you love, you should consider buying gift cards, virtual tickets or some other form of direct support. For any theater chain that is not AMC or Regal, 2020 could very well be the end. If movies have a future, it is up to you.
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