Final Oscar Predictions - 2020
Best Picture
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Ford v. Ferarri
Marriage Story
The big prize of the night is also the most uncertain race of the bunch. “1917,” “Parasite,” “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” “The Irishman” and “Jojo Rabbit” all have at least an outside shot at winning. The first three are the real favorites, and “1917” and “Parasite” are likely the top 2.
And while “1917” is an objectively impressive feat of moviemaking, “Parasite” would be a welcomed shift from what the Academy usually rewards. It is contemporary, it is international, it is fun. It is also beloved by wide swaths of Hollywood, as shown by it’s win at the SAG Awards and some of the passionate responses to Director Bong and his charming cast. Much like Moonlight a few years ago, this could be an opportunity for the Academy to do something truly special.
Including “Knives Out” among the nominees would have also been truly special, but unfortunately, that team will have to settle for the millions more they are likely to make from the now greenlit sequel.
Will Win: “1917”
Should Win: “Parasite”
Could Win: “Parasite”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Knives Out”
Best Director
Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman”
Todd Phillips, “Joker”
Sam Mendes, “1917”
Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite”
Should the guy who directed “American Beauty” really win a second Oscar? That’s the question the Academy will answer tomorrow. Sam Mendes is a talented director, but giving him a second Oscar seems like overkill when Scorsese only has one and Christopher Nolan has none. That said, it is a real display of a sort of athletic filmmaking that the Academy loves to reward that.
Like Best Picture, this category is a chance for the Academy to do something genuinely cool. But most of the time, that means they will do the exactly the opposite. Let’s cross our fingers that this is one of those rare years where the Academy surprises us and does the right thing.
Will Win: Sam Mendes, “1917”
Should Win: Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite”
Could Win: Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite”
Should Have Been Nominated: Noah Baumbach, “Marriage Story”
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, “Harriet”
Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”
Saoirse Ronan, “Little Women”
Charlize Theron, “Bombshell”
Renee Zellweger, “Judy”
This is easily the year’s dumbest category. For some reason, in the early months of the year, it was decided that Renee Zellweger needed a second Oscar. Since then, she has steamrolled through the season. No one has come close to a credible challenge, so she will win for an impressive impersonation of Judy Garland.
Meanwhile, Lupita Nyong’o gave two performances in “Us” that were more interesting than anything else in this category. It is a shame the Academy is so rigid in their understanding of what women of color can do on screen. Cynthia Erivo is an immensely talented woman, but the idea that the only nominee of color at this year’s Oscar is (yet again) portraying a slave is disappointing (to say the least).
Among the nominees, Scarlett Johansson does the most without a gimmicky hook. No flashy makeup or real life person. Just a performance that completes the movie. She’d be my winner here if I was forced to ignore the fact that Lupita slayed them all.
Will Win: Renee Zellweger, “Judy”
Should Win: Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”
Could Win: Nobody
Should Have Been Nominated: Lupita Nyong’o, “Us”
Best Actor
Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Adam Driver, “Marriage Story”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”
Jonathan Pryce, “The Two Popes”
At one point, it looked like this would be a two man race, with Adam Driver putting up a fight. Unfortunately, it has instead turned into a coronation. Joaquin has won everything and stands to keep the roll going. It is a good performance and actors really respond to what he is doing. Given that he has never won before, this is less upsetting than Zellweger above, but this really should have been a better race. Adam Driver is delivering the performance of the year in “Marriage Story” and he is the best actor of his generation. His time will come.
Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”
Should Win: Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”
Could Win: Adam Driver, “Marriage Story”
Should Have Been Nominated: Adam Sandler, “Uncut Gems”
Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates, “Richard Jewell”
Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”
Scarlett Johansson, “Jojo Rabbit”
Florence Pugh, “Little Women”
Margot Robbie, “Bombshell”
Another snoozer of a race that could have been more. Jennifer Lopez should be here and her Super Bowl halftime performance should have been the biggest Oscar ad of all time. Instead, we are staring down the barrel of a Laura Dern runaway. Laura Dern is great and this performance is fine, but the idea that this is what she will win for is silly.
Will Win: Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”
Should Win: Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”
Could Win: Nobody
Should Have Been Nominated: Jennifer Lopez, “Hustlers”
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Two Popes”
Al Pacino, “The Irishman”
Joe Pesci, “The Irishman”
Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
This is the biggest lock of the night. Of the sewn up races, at least this one is turning out right. Brad Pitt has been delivering terrific performances for decades now, and his only Oscar win came as a producer of “12 Years A Slave.” He deserves this win.
If anyone should feel slighted at their omission, it should be Sang Kang-ho. He is the heart and soul of the year’s most beloved breakout hit. Honestly, if his name were James Smith, he would have been a surefire nominee. But because he is Korean and a lesser known name, he misses out.
Will Win: Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Should Win: Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Could Win: Nobody
Should Have Been Nominated: Sang Kang-ho, “Parasite”
Adapted Screenplay
Taika Waititi, “Jojo Rabbit”
Steve Zaillian, “The Irishman”
Anthony McCarten, “The Two Popes”
Greta Gerwig, “Little Women”
Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, “Joker”
When Greta Gerwig announced she was working on an adaptation of the beloved novel Little Women, the general response was— “do we really need another one?” After all, it had already been adapted six times and the 1994 version is generally well-regarded. Once people saw Gerwig’s version, however, they understood that it had a unique vision and something new to say. That is the kind of thing this category should look to reward.
Will Win: Taika Waititi, “Jojo Rabbit”
Should Win: Greta Gerwig, “Little Women”
Could Win: Greta Gerwig, “Little Women”
Should Have Been Nominated: None
Original Screenplay
Rian Johnson (“Knives Out”)
Noah Baumbach (“Marriage Story”)
Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns (“1917”)
Quentin Tarantino (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”)
Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won (“Parasite”)
This is generally the category where Oscar tries to reward the year’s “cool” film— “Get Out,” “Her” and “Juno” all won here. If they operate in that vein, “Parasite” should win in a walk. The only thing approaching it’s “cool” factor is “Knives Out,” and that didn’t manage to be taken very seriously.
However, “Green Book,” “Manchester by the Sea” and countless other also managed to win here. Perhaps more than any other, this is a category where the Academy seems to fight with itself. That could mean “1917” wins here en route to a big night overall. Even though the screenplay is generally considered its weakest element, it might be just strong enough to carry it over the finish line.
Will Win: Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won “Parasite”
Should Win: Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won “Parasite”
Could Win: Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns “1917”
Should Have Been Nominated: Lulu Wang, “The Farewell”
Animated Feature
“How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World”
“I Lost My Body”
“Klaus”
“Missing Link”
“Toy Story 4”
International Feature Film
“Corpus Christi”
“Honeyland”
“Les Miserables”
“Pain and Glory”
“Parasite”
Best Documentary
“American Factory”
“The Cave”
“Edge of Democracy”
“For Sama”
“Honeyland”
Best Cinematography
Rodrigo Prieto, “The Irishman”
Lawrence Sher, “Joker”
Jarin Blaschke, “The Lighthouse”
Roger Deakins, “1917”
Robert Richardson, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Best Costume Design
Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson, “The Irishman”
Mayes C. Rubeo, “Jojo Rabbit”
Mark Bridges, “Joker”
Jacqueline Durran, “Little Women”
Arianne Phillip, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Film Editing
Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland, “Ford vs. Ferrari”
Thelma Schoonmaker, “The Irishman”
Tom Eagles, “Jojo Rabbit”
Jeff Groth, “Joker”
Yang Jinmo, “Parasite”
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Bombshell” (Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan and Vivian Baker)
“Joker” (Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou)
“Judy” (Jeremy Woodhead)
“Maleficent: Mistress of Evil” (Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten and David White)
“1917” (Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis and Rebecca Cole)
Original Score
Hildur Guðnadóttir, “Joker”
Alexandre Desplat, “Little Women”
Randy Newman, “Marriage Story”
Thomas Newman, “1917”
John Williams, “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”
Original Song
I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” “Toy Story 4”
“I’m Gonna Love Me Again,” “Rocketman”
“I’m Standing With You,” “Breakthrough”
“Into the Unknown,” “Frozen 2”
“Stand Up,” “Harriet”
Production Design
“The Irishman”
Production Design: Bob Shaw
Set Decoration: Regina Graves
“Jojo Rabbit”
Production Design: Ra Vincent
Set Decoration: Nora Sopková
“1917”
Production Design: Dennis Gassner
Set Decoration: Lee Sandales
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Production Design: Barbara Ling
Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
“Parasite”
Production Design: Lee Ha Jun
Set Decoration: Cho Won Woo
Sound Mixing
“Ad Astra” (Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson and Mark Ulano)
“Ford vs. Ferrari” (Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Steven A. Morrow)
“Joker” (Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Tod Maitland)
“1917” (Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson)
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” (Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler and Mark Ulano)
Sound Editing
“Ford v Ferrari” (Donald Sylvester)
“Joker” (Alan Robert Murray)
“1917” (Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate)
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” (Wylie Stateman)
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker” (Matthew Wood and David Acord)
Visual Effects
“Avengers: Endgame” (Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Matt Aitken and Dan Sudick)
“The Irishman” (Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser and Stephane Grabli)
“The Lion King” (Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones and Elliot Newman)
“1917” (Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler and Dominic Tuohy)
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker” (Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach and Dominic Tuohy)
Documentary (Short Subject)
“In the Absence”
“Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone If You’re a Girl”
“Life Overtakes Me”
“St. Louis Superman”
“Walk Run Cha-Cha”
Short Film (Animated)
“Daughter”
“Hair Love”
“Kitbull”
“Memorable”
“Sister”
Short Film (Live Action)
“Brotherhood”
“Nefta Football Club”
“The Neighbor’s Window”
“Saria”
“A Sister”
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