Final Oscar Predictions - 2019

Best Picture

“A Star Is Born”

“BlacKkKlansman”

“Black Panther”

“Bohemian Rhapsody”

“The Favourite”

“Green Book”

“Roma”

“Vice”

This is the big award of the night and it could go a number of ways. Ever since the Academy switched to a preferential ballot, this category has been tougher and tougher to call. If you ask me, any of BlacKkKlansman, Roma, Green Book, Black Panther or The Favourite have at least an outside chance at winning. And while Roma is the odds on favorite for the win, my gut says Green Book. The groans would be loud, but something tells me it will get a lot of the crucial second and third place votes. Roma must overcome Netflix stigma, black and white, and foreign language hurdles to win on the first ballot. Otherwise, all bets are off.

Will Win: Green Book

Could Win: Roma

Should Win: Black Panther

Should Have Been Nominated: If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Director

Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma”

Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”

Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”

Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”

Adam McKay, “Vice”

This is his movie through and through. This one is close to a lock and might be one of a few Oscars Cuarón takes home on Sunday. One thing to note is that this will be Cuarón’s second win in the last six years (Gravity). And it will be the fifth win in six years for the “Three Amigos,” which are Alejandro G. Iñárity, Guillermo Del Toro and Alfonso Cúaron who are all Mexican and are all friends.

It would be very exciting to see Spike Lee win this given Oscar’s cold shoulder on many occasions. If he did win, that sentimentality would be a big reason why.

That Ryan Coogler was left out of this lineup is a shame. History will not look fondly upon that omission. It is strange that so much about Black Panther is being recognized as if all of those things did not only work because of Coogler’s directorial choices.

Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón

Could Win: Spike Lee

Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón

Should Have Been Nominated: Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

Best Actress

Glenn Close, “The Wife”

Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”

Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”

Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”

Glenn Close will finally win. The crown of most nominated working actor to never win an Oscar will pass from her head to Amy Adams’ after years of being shut out. The role and performance are solid enough, but many view this as in the vein of Julianne Moore winning for Still Alice. She did enough to win, but this is not her best work by any means.

Olivia Colman is the only one who could potentially spoil, but that is unlikely. In a season that started off looking like it would belong to Lady Gaga, Close has dominated to such a level that this looks like a coronation.

Will Win: Glenn Close

Could Win: Olivia Colman

Should Win: Glenn Close

Should Have Been Nominated: Viola Davis, Widows

Best Actor

Christian Bale, “Vice”

Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”

Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”

Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”

Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity's Gate”

This one is confounding to me. At various points throughout the season, it has looked like others had a shot, but at this point, this looks like Rami Malek’s award. He’s fine in the movie, but I thought the fact that it’s a bad movie would hold him back. Not so.

On my personal ballot, Rami would be fourth. Mortensen, Cooper and Bale all give better performances in better movies. Each answers and outdoes Rami’s performance on every level. If impersonation is what you want, Viggo delivers in spades. If embodiment is what you’re looking for, Christian Bale is the clear choice. If complexity and range does it for you, Bradley Cooper brings it. I do not understand this choice by the Academy, but that doesn’t mean it’s not happening.

Will Win: Rami Malek

Could Win: Christian Bale

Should Win: Bradley Cooper

Should Have Been Nominated: John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Best Supporting Actress

Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”

Marina de Tavira, “Roma”

Emma Stone, “The Favourite”

Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite“

Claire Foy, “First Man”

This is easily the most confusing award of the night. There is no clear frontrunner anymore. Every precursor seems to highlight someone different and exclusions and snubs were all over the place. My gut tells me Regina King will win, but I don’t feel the least bit safe choosing her. She has not won anything with voters that overlap with Oscar voters, but it feels like she will eek this one out.

If Olivia Colman were here (where she belongs, by the way), she would take this in a walk. As is, Rachel Weisz is the clearest threat. While she’s won before, it has been a while and she is said to be a popular actress in Hollywood.

We will see. But to quote Regina King’s character in If Beale Street Could Talk “if you trusted love this far, trust it all the way.”

Will Win: Regina King

Could Win: Rachel Weisz

Should Win: Emma Stone

Should Have Been Nominated: Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”

Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Sam Elliot, “A Star Is Born”

Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”

Sam Rockwell, “Vice”

This is the lockiest lock of the night. Mahershala Ali will become a two-time Oscar winner on the same night his turn in Season 3 of True Detective wraps. That is somewhat strange, however. Not only would this be a quick turnaround from his win two years ago for Moonlight, but the performance also wasn’t that great. It was fine, but his dominance throughout this season makes it seem like an all-timer and it wasn’t.

Will Win: Mahershala Ali

Could Win: Nobody

Should Win: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Should Have Been Nominated: Bryan Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Adapted Screenplay

Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”

Barry Jenkins, “If Beale Street Could Talk”

Nicole Holofcener & Jeff Whitty, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, “The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs”

Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters, “A Star Is Born”

This is Spike’s surest shot at an Oscar. After years of snubs and being overlooked for films like Do the Right Thing, 25th Hour and Malcolm X, Spike looks set to finally win his first Oscar. As usual, it’s not for his best work, but we’ll take what we can get.

Will Win: BlacKkKlansman

Could Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Should Have Been Nominated: Ryan Coogler & Jay Robert Cole, Black Panther

Best Original Screenplay 

Deborah Davis & Tony McNamara, “The Favourite”

Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”

Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie & Peter Farrelly, “Green Book”

Adam McKay, “Vice”

Paul Schrader, “First Reformed”

Witty banter, fresh take on a period drama, lesbians. The Favourite has everything. Paul Schrader is a legend who had never been nominated despite having written all-timers like Raging Bull and Taxi Driver. But the nomination is likely his reward.

Will Win: The Favourite

Could Win: Green Book

Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Should Have Been Nominated: Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade

Cinematography

“Cold War,” Lukasz Zal
“The Favourite,” Robbie Ryan
“Never Look Away,” Caleb Deschanel
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“A Star Is Born,” Matthew Libatique

 

Costume Design 

“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Mary Zophres
“Black Panther,” Ruth E. Carter
“The Favourite,” Sandy Powell
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Sandy Powell
“Mary Queen of Scots,” Alexandra Byrne

 

Film Editing

“BlacKkKlansman,” Barry Alexander Brown
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Ottman
“Green Book,” Patrick J. Don Vito
“The Favourite,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis
“Vice,” Hank Corwin

 

Makeup and Hair

 

“Border”
“Mary Queen of Scots”
“Vice”

 

Production Design

“Black Panther,” Hannah Beachler
“First Man,” Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
“The Favourite,” Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
“Mary Poppins Returns,” John Myhre, Gordon Sim
“Roma,” Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez

  

Score 

“BlacKkKlansman,” Terence Blanchard
“Black Panther,” Ludwig Goransson
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Nicholas Britell
“Isle of Dogs,” Alexandre Desplat
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman

 

Potential Spoilers: A Quiet Place; Isle of Dogs

Song

“All The Stars” from “Black Panther” by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
“I’ll Fight” from “RBG” by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns” by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
“Shallow” from “A Star Is Born” by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice
“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch

Sound Editing

“Black Panther”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“First Man”
“A Quiet Place”
“Roma”

 

Sound Mixing 

“Black Panther”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“First Man”
“Roma”
“A Star Is Born”

 

Visual Effects 

“Avengers: Infinity War”
“Christopher Robin”
“First Man”
“Ready Player One”
“Solo: A Star Wars Story”

 

Animated Feature

“Incredibles 2”
“Isle of Dogs”
“Mirai”
“Ralph Breaks the Internet”
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”

 

Documentary Feature 

“Free Solo”
“Hale County This Morning, This Evening”
“Minding the Gap”
“Of Fathers and Sons”
“RBG” 

Foreign Language Film 

“Capernaum” (Lebanon)
“Cold War” (Poland)
“Never Look Away” (Germany)
“Roma” (Mexico)
“Shoplifters” (Japan)

Should be a slam Dunk for Roma. Best Picture nomination should make it a sure thing here.

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